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NASDAQ: COIN · Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Coinbase Global Inc. — Investment Memo

MBA AF 632 – Asset Management Practicum · Prof. Atreya Chakraborty · UMass Boston, Spring 2026

Recommendation
BUY
Current Price
$197
Target Price
$263
Upside
33%
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Key Metrics

Market Cap
$53.5B
Enterprise Value
$49.6B
52-Week Range
$139 – $444
Blended PT (50/50 DCF/Rel. Val.)
$263

Investment Thesis

We initiate coverage on Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN), the largest U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, with a BUY rating and a 12-month price target of $263, implying 33% upside. The thesis rests on four growth drivers:

  • "Everything Exchange" strategy: Coinbase is expanding beyond crypto into equities, commodities, derivatives, and prediction markets, expanding its TAM and wallet share capture.
  • Onchain and DeFi infrastructure: Deeper integration of DeFi protocols and its Base blockchain positions Coinbase as critical infrastructure for onchain financial activity, diversifying revenue beyond trading.
  • Global expansion: International rollout of the Everything Exchange, onchain services, and stablecoin/payment capabilities broadens the total addressable market beyond the U.S.
  • Regulatory clarity: The GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act establish the first comprehensive U.S. federal framework for stablecoins and digital assets, reducing legal risk and supporting institutional adoption.

Valuation Summary

DCF (50% weight)
$233
Relative Valuation (50%)
$293
WACC
12.4%
Terminal EV/Revenue Exit
10x

Key Risks

Execution & Product Adoption Risk

Integrating multiple asset classes, onchain/DeFi infrastructure, and stablecoin offerings is operationally complex and could see slower-than-expected adoption.

Regulatory & Compliance Risk

Changes or delays in the GENIUS/CLARITY Acts, SEC guidance, or international regulation could impact product launches and revenue.

Global Expansion Risk

Entering new geographies exposes Coinbase to local regulatory hurdles, political uncertainty, and competition from local exchanges.

Crypto Market & Macro Volatility

Trading volumes and transaction revenue remain sensitive to crypto market cycles and macroeconomic conditions.

Methodology & Tools

Fundamental analysis, DCF and relative valuation (EV/Revenue and EV/Adjusted EBITDA), Porter's Five Forces, DuPont analysis, ESG scorecard, and full financial statement projections through FY2029, built using Microsoft Excel, Bloomberg Terminal, and public company filings.